How an aging population could be tonic for the economy

Publie dans : Economie

Economists worry about something called the economic dependency ratio – the number of people over age 65 to 100 working-age people. The U.S. Census Bureau projects that the ratio will jump sharply in the years ahead as the population gets grayer – from 22 in 2010 to 35 in 2030.

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The total dependency ratio, which also includes children, won’t rise nearly that quickly, but politicians and policymakers often marshal the elderly dependence figures to conjure all manner of economic doomsday forecasts – soaring budget deficits, the collapse of Social Security and Medicare. You’d think we’re headed for block-to-block intergenerational warfare raging in our streets.

Those scenarios aren’t likely to occur, but there are reasons for concern. We do face a retirement security crisis prompted by low saving rates and the decline of traditional pensions. Healthcare costs could start to soar again. Demand for long-term support and services may explode.

But what if we could change the math? Paul Irving argues that we can – and must – view aging as a huge potential opportunity in a fascinating new volume called « The Upside of Aging: How Long Life is Changing the World of Health, Work, Innovation, Policy and Purpose » (Wiley, April 2014).

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